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Yen crosses and the Tokyo fixing at 9:55

In Tokyo, around 9:55 local time each day, there is a fixing used by Japanese importers and exporters to set the day's rate for settlements. Dollar-yen and the yen crosses often show unusual flow in the minutes before it.

The pattern is less well known than the London fix. Price tends to drift up or down into the fix, sometimes with a few sharp bursts, and then settles. On days when the yen is trending, the fix amplifies the move. On quiet days it creates a small spike that reverses within minutes.

A scalper in a European or American time zone usually misses this entirely, because it happens before the London open. Those based in Asia often see it as a daily gift or a daily nuisance.

For anyone interested in trading it, the main points are the timing in GMT (roughly 00:55), the spreads which can widen a little, and the tendency for the move to be one-sided on days with large flows.

Is the Tokyo fix visible in the charts of the yen pairs being traded, and does it show up more on certain days of the week?

Gotobi days are dates that are multiples of five, such as the 5th, 10th, 15th, 20th, 25th and the final day of the month. Japanese importers settle payments on those dates and often buy dollars before the Tokyo fixing at 9:55am.

The upshot is a recurring bid in USDJPY during the Tokyo morning on those days. It isn't guaranteed and it isn't a free lunch, since plenty of people know about it and the pattern weakens when other forces dominate. Still, it shows up often enough to be a reasonable thing to chart.

What makes it interesting for scalpers is the shape. The pressure tends to build into the fix, then fade immediately afterward. Entering at 9:50 with a long and expecting continuation after 9:55 tends to disappoint.

Another angle: the pattern changes with the broader trend. In a strongly falling USDJPY market, gotobi bids may only slow the decline rather than reverse it.

A fair test is to mark every gotobi day for six months on a chart and note the move from 9:00 to 10:00 Tokyo time.

The effect tends to be strongest on days when USDJPY has been drifting lower into the fix, since importers' dollar demand meets thin offers. On days when the pair is already rallying hard, the bid is invisible. A simple record, marking the direction of the move from 9:30 to 9:55 and then from 9:55 to 10:30, builds a table that clarifies which behavior to expect.

Is the gotobi bid still showing up on recent charts, or has it faded?