the COT report is a rear-view mirror, so why quote it?
Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2026 10:42 am
The CFTC Commitments of Traders report is nearly useless for a 5-minute trader, and that's fine.
The data is collected on Tuesday and published on Friday. By the time anyone reads it, three days have passed and positions may have flipped. It covers futures, not spot, so the retail forex market is only reflected indirectly through currency futures on the CME.
What it can do is describe the backdrop. Extreme net positioning in a currency future, either long or short, hints at how crowded a trade is. Crowded trades can unwind violently, but the report doesn't say when.
What it can't do is time an entry. A scalper looking at it for a signal on a 1-minute chart is using a monthly tool on a minute problem.
The decent use is simple: as a weekly note on whether the big picture is lopsided. If positioning is extreme and a surprise lands, expect the move to be bigger than usual.
Plenty of forum members treat it as gospel anyway.
Do you look at COT data at all as a scalper, and if so, what specifically do you take from it?
The data is collected on Tuesday and published on Friday. By the time anyone reads it, three days have passed and positions may have flipped. It covers futures, not spot, so the retail forex market is only reflected indirectly through currency futures on the CME.
What it can do is describe the backdrop. Extreme net positioning in a currency future, either long or short, hints at how crowded a trade is. Crowded trades can unwind violently, but the report doesn't say when.
What it can't do is time an entry. A scalper looking at it for a signal on a 1-minute chart is using a monthly tool on a minute problem.
The decent use is simple: as a weekly note on whether the big picture is lopsided. If positioning is extreme and a surprise lands, expect the move to be bigger than usual.
Plenty of forum members treat it as gospel anyway.
Do you look at COT data at all as a scalper, and if so, what specifically do you take from it?