1.0900 held three times and then it didn't
Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2026 10:14 am
The 1.0900 level holds three times in a row on EURUSD. Price pokes to 1.0898, bounces. Again an hour later, bounce. Third touch, bounce, 4 pips each. It feels like a free level.
The fourth touch comes just after a data release. Price doesn't stall and doesn't wick, it goes through in one candle and keeps going another 15 pips. The stop sitting 5 pips above gets tagged in seconds.
Afterwards the chart looks obvious. Of course it broke. Of course the fourth time was different. The earlier bounces were obvious in hindsight too, and nobody could tell in advance which touch was the last one.
Round numbers do attract orders, and plenty of traders watch the .00 and .50 levels as reference points. They don't come with a promise that the level holds, and a run of three clean bounces can make anyone overconfident.
Do you fade the big figure, trade the break, or skip it altogether, and does .50 behave any differently for you than .00?
The fourth touch comes just after a data release. Price doesn't stall and doesn't wick, it goes through in one candle and keeps going another 15 pips. The stop sitting 5 pips above gets tagged in seconds.
Afterwards the chart looks obvious. Of course it broke. Of course the fourth time was different. The earlier bounces were obvious in hindsight too, and nobody could tell in advance which touch was the last one.
Round numbers do attract orders, and plenty of traders watch the .00 and .50 levels as reference points. They don't come with a promise that the level holds, and a run of three clean bounces can make anyone overconfident.
Do you fade the big figure, trade the break, or skip it altogether, and does .50 behave any differently for you than .00?