Why one-minute bars lie about what happened inside them
Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2026 10:08 am
Why one-minute bars lie about what happened inside them
A one-minute candle has four numbers: open, high, low, close. Between those four numbers sits a whole path that the candle cannot describe.
Two bars can look identical and have completely different stories. One opened at 1.0850, ran to 1.0860 in the first ten seconds, fell to 1.0845, and closed at 1.0852. Another opened at the same price, drifted down to 1.0845 first, ran to 1.0860 in the last ten seconds, and closed at 1.0852. Same OHLC, opposite sequences.
For a scalper with a 4-pip target and a 4-pip stop, the sequence decides the outcome. In the first bar, the target hit before the stop. In the second, the stop hit first.
Backtests on bar data have to guess. Most engines assume a default order, such as open, then low, then high, then close, or the reverse, depending on the candle colour. The guess flatters some strategies and punishes others.
The danger is greatest for tight targets and stops, since both sit inside the typical bar range. The wider the targets compared with the bar, the less the sequence matters.
Tick data removes the guessing. It costs storage and time. For short-term strategies it is the only data that tells the truth.
A fast diagnostic is to count what share of the strategy's trades have a stop and target both smaller than the average one-minute range. If that share is high, the strategy lives inside the zone where bar data cannot be trusted. Some traders move the test to ticks only for that subset of trades, which saves time while still removing the worst source of error. The comparison between bar-based and tick-based results on the same subset is often the most persuasive evidence available.
Is the current backtest using ticks, or is it relying on an assumption about what happened inside each bar?
A one-minute candle has four numbers: open, high, low, close. Between those four numbers sits a whole path that the candle cannot describe.
Two bars can look identical and have completely different stories. One opened at 1.0850, ran to 1.0860 in the first ten seconds, fell to 1.0845, and closed at 1.0852. Another opened at the same price, drifted down to 1.0845 first, ran to 1.0860 in the last ten seconds, and closed at 1.0852. Same OHLC, opposite sequences.
For a scalper with a 4-pip target and a 4-pip stop, the sequence decides the outcome. In the first bar, the target hit before the stop. In the second, the stop hit first.
Backtests on bar data have to guess. Most engines assume a default order, such as open, then low, then high, then close, or the reverse, depending on the candle colour. The guess flatters some strategies and punishes others.
The danger is greatest for tight targets and stops, since both sit inside the typical bar range. The wider the targets compared with the bar, the less the sequence matters.
Tick data removes the guessing. It costs storage and time. For short-term strategies it is the only data that tells the truth.
A fast diagnostic is to count what share of the strategy's trades have a stop and target both smaller than the average one-minute range. If that share is high, the strategy lives inside the zone where bar data cannot be trusted. Some traders move the test to ticks only for that subset of trades, which saves time while still removing the worst source of error. The comparison between bar-based and tick-based results on the same subset is often the most persuasive evidence available.
Is the current backtest using ticks, or is it relying on an assumption about what happened inside each bar?