The quiet before a Fed afternoon
Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2026 9:35 am
The quiet before a Fed afternoon
On days of a major central bank decision, the hours before the announcement often look strange. Ranges shrink. Spreads tighten or hold. Price drifts in a narrow band.
The calm is deceptive. Participants are waiting. Large positions are not being added. Liquidity providers are keeping size small.
For scalpers, the compression produces many false breakouts. A move of five pips looks like the start of something and stops. Mean reversion setups work until the announcement.
Then the release breaks the compression, and the first moves are violent. Positions held from the calm period face a different market.
Experienced scalpers often reduce activity in the two hours before the event. Others trade the range with strict exits before the announcement.
The pattern is common enough to be checked on recent central bank days. Plotting the average range per hour on those days against normal days shows the squeeze.
How did the range compare in the three hours before the last major central bank decision, relative to a normal day?
On days of a major central bank decision, the hours before the announcement often look strange. Ranges shrink. Spreads tighten or hold. Price drifts in a narrow band.
The calm is deceptive. Participants are waiting. Large positions are not being added. Liquidity providers are keeping size small.
For scalpers, the compression produces many false breakouts. A move of five pips looks like the start of something and stops. Mean reversion setups work until the announcement.
Then the release breaks the compression, and the first moves are violent. Positions held from the calm period face a different market.
Experienced scalpers often reduce activity in the two hours before the event. Others trade the range with strict exits before the announcement.
The pattern is common enough to be checked on recent central bank days. Plotting the average range per hour on those days against normal days shows the squeeze.
How did the range compare in the three hours before the last major central bank decision, relative to a normal day?