US bank holidays and the ghost market
Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2026 8:40 am
US bank holidays and the ghost market
When New York is closed for a holiday, forex does not close. The platform keeps updating and the candles keep forming. But the market underneath is a different one.
On days like Thanksgiving, Independence Day, or Martin Luther King Day, US banks are out. Liquidity in dollar pairs thins out after the London afternoon. The usual afternoon momentum does not appear. Ranges compress, spreads widen by a little, and breakouts fail with a regularity that surprises people who expect "normal" behaviour.
The charts look normal and the indicators fire as usual, which is what makes it dangerous. A scalper running a momentum strategy during a holiday afternoon tends to bleed in small increments.
Some points worth noting:
- Dollar-yen can behave oddly since Tokyo and London hold the ball alone
- Reduced volume makes single large orders more visible
- Brokers sometimes extend the spread quietly on holiday sessions
A holiday calendar for the main financial centres takes minutes to build and covers it.
Does the strategy get tested separately on bank holiday sessions, or are they mixed into the general sample?
When New York is closed for a holiday, forex does not close. The platform keeps updating and the candles keep forming. But the market underneath is a different one.
On days like Thanksgiving, Independence Day, or Martin Luther King Day, US banks are out. Liquidity in dollar pairs thins out after the London afternoon. The usual afternoon momentum does not appear. Ranges compress, spreads widen by a little, and breakouts fail with a regularity that surprises people who expect "normal" behaviour.
The charts look normal and the indicators fire as usual, which is what makes it dangerous. A scalper running a momentum strategy during a holiday afternoon tends to bleed in small increments.
Some points worth noting:
- Dollar-yen can behave oddly since Tokyo and London hold the ball alone
- Reduced volume makes single large orders more visible
- Brokers sometimes extend the spread quietly on holiday sessions
A holiday calendar for the main financial centres takes minutes to build and covers it.
Does the strategy get tested separately on bank holiday sessions, or are they mixed into the general sample?