Rate decision days: the second move
Posted: Fri Oct 30, 2026 6:33 am
On a rate decision day, there are really two events. The decision itself, and the press conference that follows thirty minutes or so later.
The first move comes from the headline: rates up, down, or unchanged, with a statement that gets scanned for changes in wording. The second move comes from the press conference, where the chair's tone, answers to questions, and hints about future paths can reverse the first reaction completely.
That means a scalper who traded the decision and saw a profit may watch it vanish during the press conference. Equally, a loss on the first move might become a profit if the position survived the second.
A common approach is to treat the two events separately. Flatten before the decision, stay out during the first reaction, and re-engage only after the press conference has settled. The cost is giving up a chunk of the move. The benefit is skipping the two worst whipsaw windows of the month.
How are decision days handled: sit out entirely, trade the aftermath, or go for the spike?
The first move comes from the headline: rates up, down, or unchanged, with a statement that gets scanned for changes in wording. The second move comes from the press conference, where the chair's tone, answers to questions, and hints about future paths can reverse the first reaction completely.
That means a scalper who traded the decision and saw a profit may watch it vanish during the press conference. Equally, a loss on the first move might become a profit if the position survived the second.
A common approach is to treat the two events separately. Flatten before the decision, stay out during the first reaction, and re-engage only after the press conference has settled. The cost is giving up a chunk of the move. The benefit is skipping the two worst whipsaw windows of the month.
How are decision days handled: sit out entirely, trade the aftermath, or go for the spike?