How far London overshoots the Asian range: measuring it for targets
Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2026 6:58 pm
When London breaks the Asian range on EURUSD, it often goes a bit further and then comes back. Measuring that on your own data gives a better basis for targets than a fixed number.
What to measure on each breakout morning:
Then bucket by range size. The common view is that a tight Asian range breaks harder; your numbers will show whether that holds. If ranges under 20 pips produce larger extensions, targets should scale with it.
A target method that follows from the data: for each range-size bucket, target 1.2 times the median extension, and exit if price closes back inside the range on M5. A worked example: with a median extension of 9 pips, the target is about 11 pips beyond the break, and the M5 close-back rule caps the damage on failed breaks.
A year of mornings gives you around 250 observations. Twelve months of M1 data is enough to run it in a script.
Has anyone measured this on GBPUSD? I'd be curious whether the ratios differ from EURUSD.
What to measure on each breakout morning:
- Extension beyond the range in the first 30 minutes, in pips.
- Whether price came back inside the range within an hour.
- The size of the Asian range itself.
Then bucket by range size. The common view is that a tight Asian range breaks harder; your numbers will show whether that holds. If ranges under 20 pips produce larger extensions, targets should scale with it.
A target method that follows from the data: for each range-size bucket, target 1.2 times the median extension, and exit if price closes back inside the range on M5. A worked example: with a median extension of 9 pips, the target is about 11 pips beyond the break, and the M5 close-back rule caps the damage on failed breaks.
A year of mornings gives you around 250 observations. Twelve months of M1 data is enough to run it in a script.
Has anyone measured this on GBPUSD? I'd be curious whether the ratios differ from EURUSD.