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A Rolling Expectancy Column That Updates Itself

Goal: a column that shows the average R of the latest ten trades at every row, so changes in your edge show up as a line.

Layout. Column A holds results in R from row 2. Column B holds the rolling average, starting at row 11, the first row where ten trades exist.

In B11:

=AVERAGE(A2:A11)

Fill down. Each row's formula shifts by one row, so B12 averages A3 to A12, and so on.

Test with the twenty results from the earlier rolling-expectancy drill. In B11 the average of trades 1 to 10 is 0.15. In B16, trades 6 to 15 average minus 0.10, and in B21, trades 11 to 20 average minus 0.50, if you extend the sheet that far. The column traces a decline from plus 0.15 to minus 0.50.

Add a threshold line. In column C, put your review trigger, for example minus 0.10, and in column D a flag:

=IF(B11<C11,"REVIEW","")

Chart columns B and C together as a line chart. The picture makes slow drift obvious, which scanning a table does not.

Window choice. Ten trades is noisy, with a standard error near 0.47R for typical dispersion. Fifty trades is smoother and slower. Many traders chart both, a short and a long window.

Also add a column showing the process score over the same window, so you can see whether expectancy and discipline move together.

Exercise: build the chart and mark the date of any setup or rule change.

Most scalping analysis looks at what price did. Fewer people pay attention to how long it took to do it.

A stretch of ten seconds with no tick, in a pair that normally updates several times a second, is a signal in itself. Liquidity providers have stepped back. Maybe a news release is close. Maybe a big order is about to hit and nobody wants to be on the other side.

Likewise, a sudden flurry of ticks inside a range-bound market suggests that something has changed, even if price hasn't moved much yet.

Tick frequency is easy to measure. Count ticks per second in a rolling window and plot it. Spikes and droughts show up quickly, and they often precede price movement by a few seconds.

It's not a trading system by itself. As a filter, though, it flags the moments when normal assumptions about spread and execution stop holding.

Few platforms show it natively, but a short indicator or script can do it in a few lines.

Has tick frequency ever warned of a move before price did?