Quarter-end: a different kind of month-end
Posted: Thu Oct 29, 2026 4:27 am
Quarter-end has its own character. Banks adjust balance sheets for reporting, funding markets tighten, and some currency basis swaps move noticeably. The effect shows up in cross-currency funding costs, which can feed into short-dated swap points and occasionally spot prices.
Traders see the effect as odd moves in the last days of March, June, September, and December, often with no clear news. Spreads on some pairs widen. Liquidity thins in funding markets, and that can spill into FX in subtle ways.
For scalpers, direct impact is hard to measure, but there are practical signs. Gaps in the rollover window can be larger. Swaps may jump. Unusual drifts appear in pairs sensitive to dollar funding, such as the yen and the euro.
It is not a reason to trade or avoid trading, but it is a reason to be a little more careful with size on those days and to expect that normal patterns might behave differently.
It also helps to keep a calendar of the final business days of each quarter and mark them in advance. Having them visible turns an unexpected oddity into a known variable.
Have you seen unusual price behaviour near quarter-end that did not fit normal session patterns?
Traders see the effect as odd moves in the last days of March, June, September, and December, often with no clear news. Spreads on some pairs widen. Liquidity thins in funding markets, and that can spill into FX in subtle ways.
For scalpers, direct impact is hard to measure, but there are practical signs. Gaps in the rollover window can be larger. Swaps may jump. Unusual drifts appear in pairs sensitive to dollar funding, such as the yen and the euro.
It is not a reason to trade or avoid trading, but it is a reason to be a little more careful with size on those days and to expect that normal patterns might behave differently.
It also helps to keep a calendar of the final business days of each quarter and mark them in advance. Having them visible turns an unexpected oddity into a known variable.
Have you seen unusual price behaviour near quarter-end that did not fit normal session patterns?