Overconfidence after a webinar
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2026 6:39 am
A slick webinar, a compelling speaker, a strategy that seemed airtight. By the end, the feeling is clear: this is the missing piece.
That feeling is worth distrusting. Presentations are designed to persuade. Cherry-picked examples look convincing, and hindsight makes any pattern seem obvious.
The danger comes when that confidence turns into action without testing. Position sizes go up, risk limits loosen, and the new method replaces a tested one.
A cooling-off rule helps: no new strategy goes live until it has been written down, backtested with costs, and forward-tested on demo for a set period. If it still looks good after that, it earns a place.
A useful question to ask after any presentation: "What would this look like if it didn't work?" If the speaker has no answer, that says something.
It can also help to wait a full week before acting on any new idea. If the enthusiasm survives seven days of normal life, the idea at least has staying power. Most don't.
How are new ideas screened before real money gets involved, and has post-webinar enthusiasm ever cost anything?
That feeling is worth distrusting. Presentations are designed to persuade. Cherry-picked examples look convincing, and hindsight makes any pattern seem obvious.
The danger comes when that confidence turns into action without testing. Position sizes go up, risk limits loosen, and the new method replaces a tested one.
A cooling-off rule helps: no new strategy goes live until it has been written down, backtested with costs, and forward-tested on demo for a set period. If it still looks good after that, it earns a place.
A useful question to ask after any presentation: "What would this look like if it didn't work?" If the speaker has no answer, that says something.
It can also help to wait a full week before acting on any new idea. If the enthusiasm survives seven days of normal life, the idea at least has staying power. Most don't.
How are new ideas screened before real money gets involved, and has post-webinar enthusiasm ever cost anything?