Asian range breakout at the London open
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2026 5:12 am
Classic idea: mark the high and low of the Asian session, then trade the breakout when London opens. Simple, popular, and tested thousands of times.
Why it might work: Asian ranges are tight, liquidity is low, and London brings fresh volume. Price often leaves the box in one direction.
Why it often disappoints: false breakouts. London sometimes spikes one side first, grabs stops, then reverses to break the other side. Whipsaws cost spread twice. And ranges that are very narrow produce stop distances too small for realistic fills.
Variations include waiting for a retest, requiring a minimum range size, or only taking the break that agrees with a higher timeframe direction.
Here's a way to sharpen the test. Record, for each day, the Asian range size in pips, the direction of the first London break, whether that break held for 30 minutes, and the final result. After 100 days, group by range size. Often the tightest ranges produce the most false breaks and the widest ones produce breaks that are already half-finished, leaving a middle band where the setup is genuinely attractive.
For those who've traded this one, what's the real win rate after costs, and what tweak, if any, improved it the most?
Why it might work: Asian ranges are tight, liquidity is low, and London brings fresh volume. Price often leaves the box in one direction.
Why it often disappoints: false breakouts. London sometimes spikes one side first, grabs stops, then reverses to break the other side. Whipsaws cost spread twice. And ranges that are very narrow produce stop distances too small for realistic fills.
Variations include waiting for a retest, requiring a minimum range size, or only taking the break that agrees with a higher timeframe direction.
Here's a way to sharpen the test. Record, for each day, the Asian range size in pips, the direction of the first London break, whether that break held for 30 minutes, and the final result. After 100 days, group by range size. Often the tightest ranges produce the most false breaks and the widest ones produce breaks that are already half-finished, leaving a middle band where the setup is genuinely attractive.
For those who've traded this one, what's the real win rate after costs, and what tweak, if any, improved it the most?