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RBA decisions at 14:30 Sydney time and what that means from a European desk

The Reserve Bank of Australia changed its routine in 2024. It now holds eight meetings a year instead of eleven, publishes the decision at 14:30 Sydney time, and the Governor holds a press conference an hour later at 15:30. Before that, decisions came out at 14:30 and there was no regular press conference.

For anyone in Europe the conversion is a little awkward because both Sydney and London use daylight saving, at opposite times of year. Depending on the month, 14:30 in Sydney is somewhere between about 03:30 and 05:30 London. Right now, with Sydney on summer time and London having just gone back to GMT, it's 03:30.

So for most European traders the RBA decision happens in the middle of the night. The question is what to do with AUDUSD in the London morning after it.

What I've noticed is that the London open often treats the Asian reaction as a starting point rather than the final word. If AUDUSD moved 40 pips on the decision and press conference, the first hour of London sometimes extends it and sometimes takes a good chunk back. I don't trade the open on those days with my usual setup. I wait until after 08:30 London and treat the RBA range, from 03:30 to the end of Asia, as the main levels for the morning.

I'd like to hear from anyone who trades AUD from Asia hours directly.

Useful summary. From Hong Kong the RBA decision lands at 11:30 or 12:30 depending on Sydney daylight saving, right in the Asian session when AUD liquidity is good. The press conference an hour later often moves AUDUSD more than the statement itself. AUDJPY and AUDNZD can be worth watching too, since they show whether the move is about the Australian dollar or the US dollar. From a European desk the hour is early morning, so having a clear rule about whether to hold AUD positions through the decision avoids nasty surprises when waking up.

The press conference is the part I'd pay most attention to if you're awake for it. The written statement is fairly short, and the Governor's answers often add colour on future meetings. Since it starts an hour after the decision, the main move can come at 15:30 Sydney rather than 14:30. Anyone placing orders around the decision and walking away should know the second event is coming, because a stop that survived the first wave can still be hit by the second. A stop placed for the first wave is often too close for the second.

Chinese data can land in the same window on some days, which complicates things. China's monthly activity data and trade figures come out in Asian hours too, and AUD often reacts to them. If a Chinese release and the RBA fall on the same morning, separating the two reactions is close to impossible on a short timeframe. I'd note both on the calendar so that a big Asian move isn't read as a pure RBA reaction when it wasn't. China's data calendar is easy to find and only takes a minute to add each week.

For crosses like AUDNZD, the RBA day often produces cleaner trends than AUDUSD, because the US dollar side is quiet at that hour. The downside is the spread, which on AUDNZD can be two or three times wider than AUDUSD in Asian hours at many brokers. If you trade it, size for the wider spread and give the stop more room. A 5 pip stop on AUDNZD at 04:00 London is mostly a bet on spread noise. The same thinking applies to NZD crosses during RBNZ decisions, which also land in Asian hours for Europe.

Because there are only eight meetings now, each one carries a bit more weight. A surprise at one meeting can't be corrected four weeks later as it could under the old schedule, so the market may react more to a hint about the next decision. That's an argument for paying closer attention to the press conference wording than you would have a few years ago. The schedule for the year is published on the RBA website, so it's easy to put all eight on the calendar at once. Eight dates a year is a small list.

USDSEK, USDNOK, EURSEK and EURNOK appeal to some scalpers because of their apparent volatility. They also come with costs that aren't obvious from the chart.

Spreads are often several pips even in good conditions, and they widen sharply outside European hours. Liquidity is concentrated in a small number of banks, so a single large order can move price noticeably.

The currencies are also sensitive to specific drivers. The Norwegian krone follows oil and risk sentiment closely. The Swedish krona follows risk appetite and European data. Both can gap on thin liquidity.

Another quirk is how these pairs behave around the European close. Liquidity drains quickly after about 5pm London, and spreads can double or triple.

A strategy built for EURUSD will probably not survive here without being adjusted: larger targets, wider stops, fewer trades and a strict time window.

Some scalpers find the pairs rewarding in the London morning, when liquidity peaks. Others find the costs too high.

How have the krona and krone pairs behaved compared with the majors, and was the extra cost worth it?