forex-scalping.com

Most monthly reviews end with a P&L number and a vague promise to "be more disciplined". A review is only useful if it changes something concrete.

Questions that tend to lead to rule changes:

1. Which setup had the best expectancy this month? Is there a reason to trade it more?
2. Which setup had the worst? Should it be paused?
3. At what time of day were results worst? Should that hour be removed?
4. What was the most common mistake? Can a rule prevent it?
5. How many trades broke an existing rule? What did those trades cost in total?
6. Did any rule prevent a loss? Keep it.
7. Did any rule prevent a win more often than a loss? Review it.

The output should be no more than two or three specific changes. "Stop trading GBPJPY before 08:15" is a change. "Be more patient" is not.

Write the changes at the top of next month's journal so they're visible every day.

What questions are in your monthly review? Has one ever led to a big improvement?

On most days the London fix is a footnote. On the last trading days of the month it can be the main event of the afternoon, and the reason is not mysterious.

Large investors who hold foreign assets rebalance at month-end to bring currency exposure back toward a target. If US equities outperformed European ones over the month, for example, a fund may need to sell dollars to restore its hedge, and a lot of that gets executed against the 4pm London benchmark.

The estimate of the size and direction comes from model-based calculations that dealers circulate, and they are often wrong. A scalper reading the headline and assuming dollar selling will occasionally get a spike in the other direction.

Pairs with heavy cross-border investment flow, such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD, tend to feel it most.

What seems consistent is the timing. Volatility tends to concentrate around the window and drop after it, whichever way price goes.

Has anyone separated month-end days from ordinary days in their stats, and did the fix window really behave differently?