Fading the London trend at the NY open: conditions worth requiring
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2026 2:45 pm
Fading a strong London trend at the start of New York is one of the more profitable trades when it works and one of the most painful when it doesn't. The difference usually comes down to whether certain conditions are present.
Conditions that tend to support a fade:
- London has extended to or beyond its average daily range.
- Price is testing a significant higher-timeframe level (previous day high/low, weekly level).
- US data at 13:30 contradicts the London direction.
- Momentum on M5 is fading: smaller candles, long wicks against the trend.
- The 16:00 UK fix is approaching, often a point where London positions are squared.
Conditions that argue against:
- The trend is driven by a fundamental shift (central bank surprise, major data miss).
- US data supports the London direction.
- Price is mid-range with no clear level to lean on.
Execution notes: wait for a structure break on M1 or M5 before entering, not just "it's gone too far". Stops above the extreme, first target the last London pullback low/high.
Do you fade London at the NY open, or do you treat it as a no-trade window?
Conditions that tend to support a fade:
- London has extended to or beyond its average daily range.
- Price is testing a significant higher-timeframe level (previous day high/low, weekly level).
- US data at 13:30 contradicts the London direction.
- Momentum on M5 is fading: smaller candles, long wicks against the trend.
- The 16:00 UK fix is approaching, often a point where London positions are squared.
Conditions that argue against:
- The trend is driven by a fundamental shift (central bank surprise, major data miss).
- US data supports the London direction.
- Price is mid-range with no clear level to lean on.
Execution notes: wait for a structure break on M1 or M5 before entering, not just "it's gone too far". Stops above the extreme, first target the last London pullback low/high.
Do you fade London at the NY open, or do you treat it as a no-trade window?