Post-news mean reversion: what a journal can reveal
Posted: Wed Oct 21, 2026 6:45 am
After a news spike, price often retraces some of the move. How much, and how often? A journal can answer this for your pairs.
What to record after each major release:
- Pair, event, time.
- Size of initial move (first 1–2 minutes).
- Maximum retracement in the next 15, 30, 60 minutes.
- Whether price returned to the pre-news level.
After 30–50 events:
- Average retracement percentage.
- How often full reversion occurred.
- Which events had the most reversion.
Typical findings might include: small surprises often fully revert; large surprises retrace 30–50% then continue.
This gives a data-based foundation for post-news fades or follow-through trades.
Has anyone tracked this? What did your data show?
What to record after each major release:
- Pair, event, time.
- Size of initial move (first 1–2 minutes).
- Maximum retracement in the next 15, 30, 60 minutes.
- Whether price returned to the pre-news level.
After 30–50 events:
- Average retracement percentage.
- How often full reversion occurred.
- Which events had the most reversion.
Typical findings might include: small surprises often fully revert; large surprises retrace 30–50% then continue.
This gives a data-based foundation for post-news fades or follow-through trades.
Has anyone tracked this? What did your data show?