Asia high fake break on gold: a replay and some rules
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2026 9:14 am
A common pattern in XAUUSD: price pushes above the Asia session high in the first 15 minutes of London, triggers breakout buyers, then reverses and drops through the range.
Rough replay of a typical example (prices shown relative to the Asia low, since the absolute level doesn't matter):
- Asia range: low +0.00 to high +5.50.
- 08:03 UK: price ticks to +6.70 and stalls.
- 08:06: a 1-minute candle closes back inside the range at +4.90.
- 08:15: price is at +1.50.
The fake break is easy to see afterwards. In real time, some filters help separate it from a real breakout:
Has anyone tracked how often the first break of the Asia high on gold fails? Would be good to compare numbers.
Rough replay of a typical example (prices shown relative to the Asia low, since the absolute level doesn't matter):
- Asia range: low +0.00 to high +5.50.
- 08:03 UK: price ticks to +6.70 and stalls.
- 08:06: a 1-minute candle closes back inside the range at +4.90.
- 08:15: price is at +1.50.
The fake break is easy to see afterwards. In real time, some filters help separate it from a real breakout:
- Break size. A real break usually extends at least 30–40% of the Asia range within a few minutes. A fake one stalls at 10–20%.
- Close back inside within 3 candles: high fake-break probability.
- US yields or DXY not confirming the move.
- A break that happens right at 08:00 on low volume tends to be weaker than one at 08:20 after the open settles.
Has anyone tracked how often the first break of the Asia high on gold fails? Would be good to compare numbers.