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A tight Asia range is often followed by a strong London move. It's one of the more reliable patterns in FX intraday behaviour, but "tight" needs a definition, and so does "expect".

A checklist that can be filled in at 07:30 UK:

• Asia range on the pair as a percentage of its 20-day average daily range. Below 25% counts as compressed.
• Any scheduled European data between 07:00 and 09:30? Data is often the trigger.
• Has price spent the last two hours in the middle of the range or near one edge? Price hugging one edge often breaks that way.
• Previous day's close relative to its range. A close near the high followed by tight Asia often continues up.
• Is there a weekend, holiday or major event later in the week that might keep traders sidelined?

If three or more boxes point the same way, the breakout from compression is worth planning. Entry on the first clean close outside the range, stop back inside, target 1–1.5x the Asia range.

If the range is compressed but nothing else lines up, it can stay compressed into lunchtime.

What do you use to judge compression: pips, percentage of ADR, or something else?