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The Weekly Pre-Mortem: Imagining the Losing Week Before It Happens

Posted: Thu Oct 08, 2026 9:40 pm
by FXS Prop Desk
A pre-mortem is a planning technique from project management: before starting, you imagine the project has failed and list the reasons why. Applied to trading, it takes about ten minutes on Sunday.

How to run it:
  1. Assume next Friday you are down more than your weekly loss limit.
  2. Write down the three most likely reasons. Be specific: "traded CPI with full size", "kept fading a trend on Tuesday", "too tired after late nights".
  3. For each reason, write one preventive rule for this week only.
Why it works:
  • It brings known weaknesses into focus before they are triggered.
  • It ties general rules to this week's actual calendar and circumstances.
  • On Friday, comparing the real week with the pre-mortem is a quick, honest review.
Over a few months, the same reasons tend to repeat. That list is a better guide to improvement than any general advice.

Would a pre-mortem fit into your weekly routine, and what would be on your first list?

Re: The Weekly Pre-Mortem: Imagining the Losing Week Before It Happens

Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2026 2:48 pm
by Shadow Trader
I started doing a Sunday pre-mortem after a week where I blew half the daily budget on a CPI fade I had already banned in my notes. Writing the failure first made the ban stick for that week instead of sitting as a vague intention.

My first list is almost always the same three: full size into US data, revenge re-entry after a scratch, and trading past 16:00 London when I am already tired. For each one I write a single week only rule, like half size until Wednesday if CPI is on the card.

The Friday compare is the part that pays. Last month the pre-mortem named revenge sizing and the real week showed two of those tags, so size dropped the following Monday without a long journal session.

I disagree that the list needs to be creative every week. Repeating the same failure modes is the point; novelty usually means I am inventing fiction.

Do you keep the preventive rules visible on the desk during the week, or only in the Sunday file? I keep a sticky note with the three week only bans next to the platform.