NFP Revisions and Wages: Reading the Report Beyond the Headline in the First Minute

[FXS Prop Desk]

The headline payrolls number is only one of several figures released together, and the market often reacts to the combination. Having a fixed reading order helps in the first minute.

A practical reading order:

1. Headline vs consensus: the first algorithmic reaction.
2. Revisions to the previous two months: large negative revisions can cancel a strong headline.
3. Average hourly earnings (m/m): wage growth matters for inflation and rate expectations.
4. Unemployment rate: particularly when it moves by 0.2 points or more.

Combinations that often produce reversals: strong headline with weak wages and downward revisions, or weak headline with strong wages.

Watching the 2-year Treasury yield alongside the pair shows which interpretation the market settles on. If yields reverse, the currency usually follows.

In which order do you read the components of the jobs report?