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ECB decision day on EURUSD, my plan for the statement and the press conference

ECB day, so there are two events: the rate decision and the press conference that follows it. Both can move EURUSD hard, and the second one often reverses the first. I'm posting my plan before it starts.

I'm flat for both. I won't have anything open going into the decision, and I won't trade the first few minutes after. Spreads are unreliable and stops get filled in strange places. If I want to trade it, I'm waiting until after the press conference has been going for a while and the market has taken a direction.

Reference levels today are the London range and the previous day high and low on M15. What I'm looking for after the dust settles is whether price holds beyond one of those levels on a couple of M5 closes. If it does, I'll look for a pullback in that direction. If it spiked and returned, I'll fade toward the other side of the range.

If nothing clean shows up, I'm done. A no trade day on ECB day is a perfectly good outcome.

A note on why I wait until well into the press conference. The statement gives the decision, but the questions afterwards are where the tone comes out, and one answer can turn the whole move around. I have seen price spike one way on the statement, sit there for twenty minutes, then reverse completely on a single comment. Waiting means I miss the first move, but I also avoid getting caught on the wrong side of that reversal. On ECB days patience is worth more than speed.

For anyone who wants to follow along, the M15 previous day high and low matter more than usual on ECB days because so many people are watching them. If the press conference pushes price through one of them and it holds, the move often carries into the NY session. If it pokes through and falls straight back, that tells me the reaction was emotional rather than a real shift. Either way, those levels give me a clear line to judge against.