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Breakouts of the late London range into the NY open on USDCHF

quick one on swissy. During the late London part of the morning, roughly 10:30 to 12:30 GMT, USDCHF often compresses into a tight range. When NY comes in, it breaks out fairly cleanly more often than I'd expect for a pair that quiet.

I mark the high and low of that compression on M5, nothing fancy. Then I wait for the NY open and watch for an M5 close beyond one side. After the close I take the pullback to the edge of the range with the stop on the other side of the edge, or inside the range if it's wide. Target is roughly the height of the range projected from the break.

What I avoid is guessing the direction beforehand. I've lost money picking a side. I let price decide and only trade what it shows me. I also avoid it when there's US data right at the open, since the first move is erratic and spreads are wider.

On days when the compression is wide and not tight, I skip, because there's no coiling and the breakout has less energy. Swissy spreads can be a bit wider than majors so my stop includes extra room.

To clarify how tight is tight for me, I compare the late London compression with the range of the earlier London session. If the 10:30 to 12:30 GMT range is less than about half of what price did between 07:00 and 10:00, it counts as compression. When it is closer to the full morning range, there is no real coiling and I skip it. It is a rough rule but it has kept me out of most of the weak breakouts.

On the target, projecting the range height from the break point gives a modest goal and I usually close the whole trade there. Occasionally USDCHF keeps going strongly once NY gets involved, so if price reaches the projected level with real momentum I will leave a small piece with the stop moved up. Most days the projected level is about as far as it goes before the pair settles down again, so I do not get greedy with it. Taking the full target and walking away suits this pair.

Something worth checking is what EURUSD is doing at the same time. Swissy often moves as a mirror of euro against the dollar. If EURUSD is also compressing and breaks the opposite way at the NY open, that adds confidence to the USDCHF break. If euro is doing something unrelated, the swissy move is more likely to be about the franc itself, and those can be choppier. I trade it either way, but I size down when the two disagree.