Session-based expectancy: stop blending Asia with London stats
Posted: Wed Oct 07, 2026 6:08 am
For about a year I ran one expectancy number for the whole account. That was a mistake.
When I finally split my trades by session, the London bucket was fine: positive after costs, stable month to month. The Asia bucket was slightly negative, with more scratches and wider relative spreads. Blended together, the account looked mediocre and I spent weeks tweaking the London playbook, which was never the problem.
How I split it now: every trade gets a session tag at entry, based on the London clock. Asia is anything before 07:00, London is 07:00 to 12:00, overlap is 12:00 to 16:00, and anything later goes in its own small bucket. Each bucket gets its own win rate, average R and cost per trade. A pivot table does the work in a couple of minutes.
The useful part is not the numbers themselves but the decisions they allow. I cut Asia to a tiny experiment budget, left London alone, and the account average improved without changing a single setup.
Separate samples, separate verdicts, same account. If your journal does not have a session column yet, add one tomorrow.
When I finally split my trades by session, the London bucket was fine: positive after costs, stable month to month. The Asia bucket was slightly negative, with more scratches and wider relative spreads. Blended together, the account looked mediocre and I spent weeks tweaking the London playbook, which was never the problem.
How I split it now: every trade gets a session tag at entry, based on the London clock. Asia is anything before 07:00, London is 07:00 to 12:00, overlap is 12:00 to 16:00, and anything later goes in its own small bucket. Each bucket gets its own win rate, average R and cost per trade. A pivot table does the work in a couple of minutes.
The useful part is not the numbers themselves but the decisions they allow. I cut Asia to a tiny experiment budget, left London alone, and the account average improved without changing a single setup.
Separate samples, separate verdicts, same account. If your journal does not have a session column yet, add one tomorrow.