Yen strength days: adjusting USDJPY scalp direction bias
Posted: Tue Oct 06, 2026 4:14 pm
On strong yen days, I need a written tag on my sheet before I change direction bias on USDJPY. Without it, I keep my normal approach.
A yen strength day for me means at least two of these: equities falling sharply in Asia, US yields dropping, yen crosses all moving the same way, or comments from Japanese officials about the currency. When I see that before London, I write "yen strong" at the top of the sheet, and USDJPY longs are off for the session. Only shorts on pullbacks, or nothing.
Why the written tag matters: without it, I used to switch bias mid-morning based on one candle. I would short the first drop, get stopped on a bounce, go long, and get stopped again when the drop resumed. Two losses from improvising instead of one decision made calmly at 07:30.
If the tag is not on the sheet, I stay neutral and trade only clear levels in either direction with normal size.
The tag can be removed during the session, but only if the conditions clearly reverse, and I have to write down why. That bit of friction stops me from changing my mind every twenty minutes.
A yen strength day for me means at least two of these: equities falling sharply in Asia, US yields dropping, yen crosses all moving the same way, or comments from Japanese officials about the currency. When I see that before London, I write "yen strong" at the top of the sheet, and USDJPY longs are off for the session. Only shorts on pullbacks, or nothing.
Why the written tag matters: without it, I used to switch bias mid-morning based on one candle. I would short the first drop, get stopped on a bounce, go long, and get stopped again when the drop resumed. Two losses from improvising instead of one decision made calmly at 07:30.
If the tag is not on the sheet, I stay neutral and trade only clear levels in either direction with normal size.
The tag can be removed during the session, but only if the conditions clearly reverse, and I have to write down why. That bit of friction stops me from changing my mind every twenty minutes.