Position inventory rules into PMI prints
Posted: Tue Oct 06, 2026 3:07 pm
PMI mornings are easy to underestimate because the figures look minor. My inventory rules for them are stricter than they used to be.
The issue: European PMIs come out in a cluster between roughly 08:15 and 09:30 London, French, then German, then eurozone, then UK. That is right in the middle of my best trading window. A position opened at 08:05 can be caught by the French figure ten minutes later.
My rules on PMI days:
- Any position on a pair affected by an upcoming PMI is closed or at breakeven three minutes before each release.
- I do not open a new trade in the five minutes before a release, even on a different pair, if the two pairs share a currency.
- If the German figure produces a big surprise, I expect the eurozone figure to have less effect, but I still treat it as a blackout.
- Between releases, trades must have a target that can realistically be hit before the next one. If not, I skip.
On US PMI days, the same applies in the afternoon, though I am rarely trading by then.
The result is fewer trades on PMI mornings, but far fewer positions caught by a figure I had forgotten about. The cluster structure is the thing to respect: it is several small events back to back, not one.
The issue: European PMIs come out in a cluster between roughly 08:15 and 09:30 London, French, then German, then eurozone, then UK. That is right in the middle of my best trading window. A position opened at 08:05 can be caught by the French figure ten minutes later.
My rules on PMI days:
- Any position on a pair affected by an upcoming PMI is closed or at breakeven three minutes before each release.
- I do not open a new trade in the five minutes before a release, even on a different pair, if the two pairs share a currency.
- If the German figure produces a big surprise, I expect the eurozone figure to have less effect, but I still treat it as a blackout.
- Between releases, trades must have a target that can realistically be hit before the next one. If not, I skip.
On US PMI days, the same applies in the afternoon, though I am rarely trading by then.
The result is fewer trades on PMI mornings, but far fewer positions caught by a figure I had forgotten about. The cluster structure is the thing to respect: it is several small events back to back, not one.