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Weekly Range Statistics: A Longer Frame for Swing Traders

Daily ranges suit intraday work. Swing traders benefit from understanding weekly ranges, which show how far a pair typically travels over several days. Calculate the high-minus-low of each week over the last 26 or 52 weeks, and average them. For many major pairs, the weekly range is roughly two to three times the average daily range, because daily movements partly offset each other and do not add up fully.

This produces useful rules of thumb. A 200-pip target on a pair with an average weekly range of 250 pips needs most of a typical week's movement in one direction. A 100-pip stop on the same pair is wide relative to the weekly range, and positions held for several days must tolerate that noise.

You can also track where in the weekly range price sits. After a strong Monday and Tuesday, if the pair has already covered its average weekly range, further extension is possible but less likely than a pullback or consolidation.

The week's open and the previous week's high and low serve as reference levels, as discussed earlier.

Weekly ranges also vary with the news calendar. Weeks with central bank decisions or employment reports tend to be wider.

Use this to set expectations in your swing plan, and to size stops and targets realistically.

Practical step: calculate the average weekly range of your pair over the last year and compare with your typical swing target.

The point that the weekly range is less than five times the daily is a good one. Days partly cancel out, so a swing target needs to be sized against the week, not daily ATR times five. For a rough check, look at the last 26 weekly candles on your pair and note the median high to low distance. If EURUSD's median week is around 160 pips, a swing trade aiming for 250 pips in one week is asking for an unusually big week. It might still happen, but you should expect to hold for two or three weeks, which changes the swap cost, the weekend exposure and how much patience the trade needs.

Tracking how much of the average weekly range is already done by Wednesday is a useful habit. If most of it is gone, I'm much less keen to chase a new entry. I keep a simple note on Monday with the previous week's range and the average, then check on Wednesday where price sits between the weekly high and low so far. If the week has already covered close to its usual distance, I look for pullbacks or wait for the next week rather than chasing a breakout. If the week has been quiet, an expansion later in the week is more likely, often around Thursday or Friday data, which is worth planning for.