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This is a rule I resisted for years and now follow without exception: on any day with a scheduled BOJ event, or when there's credible talk of Japanese intervention in the press, I'm flat on USDJPY, even if the chart looks completely dead.

Why I resisted. The chart is usually dead. Spreads are fine, ranges are small, and there's nothing visible to worry about. Standing aside felt like giving up easy money.

Why I gave in. Two experiences. The first was years ago, a quiet afternoon when a headline about possible intervention moved USDJPY nearly 200 pips in minutes. My small long was stopped out with slippage of about 15 pips. The second was more recent, a short USDJPY scalp during a calm Tokyo afternoon when a BOJ-related headline hit and the pair dropped and then reversed so violently that my stop was taken on the spike before the move went my way.

In both cases the chart gave no warning. That's the nature of headline risk on yen: the quiet isn't information.

So the rule: BOJ meeting days, the day before and the day after a meeting, and any day when Japanese finance ministry officials are publicly commenting on the currency. Flat on USDJPY and on yen crosses.

The cost is maybe 10 to 15 trading days a year on the pair. I've accepted that.

LondonScalper, I follow a similar rule, but my count of the cost came out higher than yours. The BOJ holds eight policy meetings a year, so the meeting day plus the day either side is already about 24 trading days before any finance ministry commentary is added.

That made me look at which hours actually carry the risk for a London trader. The decision has no fixed time and usually lands in the Tokyo late morning, which is the small hours in London, so by 07:00 much of the meeting day risk has already passed.

The press conference is the part that reaches my session. It usually starts in the Tokyo afternoon, close to the London open, and the governor's tone has moved the pair more than the decision on a few occasions.

So on meeting days I stay flat until the press conference has finished and then trade yen at half size. The day before and the day after I treat as normal unless officials are talking.

Your second example interests me most. Was that Tokyo afternoon inside what the rule now covers, or would the same headline still catch you today?