R-multiple distribution chart from 500 scalps
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2026 5:59 pm
I finally had 500 tagged EURUSD and GBPUSD scalps since February with clean R values, so I plotted the distribution. The chart is the most useful single picture of my trading I've ever made, and I'd encourage anyone with a decent sample to do the same.
The shape, described in words because it's simple enough not to need the image.
A tall cluster of losers sitting at exactly minus 1R, about 31% of trades. Those are stops hit cleanly.
A smaller group between minus 1.1R and minus 1.5R, about 4% of trades. Slippage, mostly around news.
A group around zero, between minus 0.2R and plus 0.2R, about 18%. Scratches and break-even exits.
Winners spread from 0.5R to about 2R, with a peak around 1.2R, about 40% of trades.
A thin tail out to 4R and beyond, about 7%. Those trades produced roughly a third of my total profit.
What it told me.
The scratches are a bigger group than I'd realised. Nearly one trade in five goes nowhere, and each one costs spread and commission.
The right tail matters enormously. If I cut my winners at 2R, I'd lose a third of my profit.
The slippage losses are small in number but painful. Most come from trades within 15 minutes of a release.
Expectancy for the whole sample was about plus 0.19R per trade. Taking out the 4R tail, it drops to plus 0.07R. Without the slippage losses, it rises to plus 0.24R.
The shape, described in words because it's simple enough not to need the image.
A tall cluster of losers sitting at exactly minus 1R, about 31% of trades. Those are stops hit cleanly.
A smaller group between minus 1.1R and minus 1.5R, about 4% of trades. Slippage, mostly around news.
A group around zero, between minus 0.2R and plus 0.2R, about 18%. Scratches and break-even exits.
Winners spread from 0.5R to about 2R, with a peak around 1.2R, about 40% of trades.
A thin tail out to 4R and beyond, about 7%. Those trades produced roughly a third of my total profit.
What it told me.
The scratches are a bigger group than I'd realised. Nearly one trade in five goes nowhere, and each one costs spread and commission.
The right tail matters enormously. If I cut my winners at 2R, I'd lose a third of my profit.
The slippage losses are small in number but painful. Most come from trades within 15 minutes of a release.
Expectancy for the whole sample was about plus 0.19R per trade. Taking out the 4R tail, it drops to plus 0.07R. Without the slippage losses, it rises to plus 0.24R.