Correlation caps for gold specialists: beginner mistakes
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2026 4:47 pm
When people start scalping gold seriously, they often add silver, then a gold miner index, then AUDUSD because "it's a gold currency". Within a month they're running what is really one big position spread across four tickets. I did exactly this around 2012.
The mistakes I see most often, and made myself:
Counting gold and silver as separate risks. On my data they move together far more than they move apart during London hours. If I'm long both, I'm long one thing at double the size.
Ignoring the dollar. A gold long and a EURUSD long are both, at least partly, dollar shorts. On a strong US data print both can hit their stops in the same minute.
Assuming the correlation is stable. It isn't. During some risk-off episodes gold and the dollar have both rallied, which breaks the usual relationship. A cap based on last month's correlation can be wrong this month.
Sizing each ticket as if it were the only one. If my normal risk per trade is 0.5%, two correlated tickets at 0.5% each is 1% at risk on one idea.
What I use now is a simple cap: no more than 0.75% of the account at risk across gold, silver and any dollar pair in the same direction. If I want a second position, the first gets reduced.
It's crude, but crude and followed beats precise and ignored.
The mistakes I see most often, and made myself:
Counting gold and silver as separate risks. On my data they move together far more than they move apart during London hours. If I'm long both, I'm long one thing at double the size.
Ignoring the dollar. A gold long and a EURUSD long are both, at least partly, dollar shorts. On a strong US data print both can hit their stops in the same minute.
Assuming the correlation is stable. It isn't. During some risk-off episodes gold and the dollar have both rallied, which breaks the usual relationship. A cap based on last month's correlation can be wrong this month.
Sizing each ticket as if it were the only one. If my normal risk per trade is 0.5%, two correlated tickets at 0.5% each is 1% at risk on one idea.
What I use now is a simple cap: no more than 0.75% of the account at risk across gold, silver and any dollar pair in the same direction. If I want a second position, the first gets reduced.
It's crude, but crude and followed beats precise and ignored.