US CPI nights are my most structured evenings of the month. Not because I trade the number, but because I want every decision about tomorrow made before I sleep.
Around 20:30 London I sit down with the notebook.
The release is at 13:30 London most of the year, 12:30 during the short period when the clocks are out of step. I write the time down and underline it.
I list every position I could still be holding at 13:00. As a scalper that should be none, but sometimes a morning trade runs and I want to have decided in advance: everything closed by 13:20, no exceptions.
I note the consensus for the headline and core figures, month on month and year on year, plus the previous values. This takes three minutes and saves me from reacting to the wrong number.
I write down what I'll do afterwards. Usually: no new trades until 13:45, then only EURUSD and gold, half size, until 15:00.
I check what else is on. If the Fed has a speaker at 15:00, or there's a big bond auction, I make a note.
Then I set two alarms on my phone: one at 13:15 ("flat") and one at 13:45 ("you may look now").
That's it. The whole thing takes 15 to 20 minutes. Do I always follow it? Mostly. The one time I skipped it last year, I held a gold position into the number and lost three days' profit in about forty seconds.
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Calendar process the night before CPI
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Shadow Trader
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Re: Calendar process the night before CPI
The 13:20 flat rule is the strongest part of this. I'd add one check that's caught me out: pending orders. Being flat on open positions doesn't help if there's a buy stop above the London high that gets triggered by the release spike.
My notebook has a separate line now: all pending orders cancelled by 13:15, written as a different step from closing positions.
On the timing note, the period when the clocks differ is worth writing down specifically. In late October, the UK goes back an hour a week before the US, so CPI that week is at 12:30 London. If CPI ever lands in that week, it's an easy one to miss.
I'd also note the revision to the previous month. Sometimes the headline is in line, but a revision to last month moves the market more than the new number, and that's when I see people react to the wrong figure.
On the post-release rule of half size until 15:00, does that include the first hour after the release, or do you wait for the 13:45 alarm before even looking?
My notebook has a separate line now: all pending orders cancelled by 13:15, written as a different step from closing positions.
On the timing note, the period when the clocks differ is worth writing down specifically. In late October, the UK goes back an hour a week before the US, so CPI that week is at 12:30 London. If CPI ever lands in that week, it's an easy one to miss.
I'd also note the revision to the previous month. Sometimes the headline is in line, but a revision to last month moves the market more than the new number, and that's when I see people react to the wrong figure.
On the post-release rule of half size until 15:00, does that include the first hour after the release, or do you wait for the 13:45 alarm before even looking?