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Setups I allow on Friday for GBPUSD

Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2026 11:46 am
by LondonScalper
Friday GBPUSD has a short list. Everything not on it is banned, and I've found that easier to follow than a list of what to avoid.

Allowed:

The London open range break, but only between 07:00 and 08:30, only in the direction of the Thursday close relative to the Thursday open, and only if the Asian range was under 35 pips. My best Friday setup by a distance.

A first pullback to the morning VWAP between 08:30 and 10:30, if the morning has already trended at least 25 pips. Half size.

A fade of the morning high or low between 10:30 and 11:30, but only if price has tested that extreme twice and the spread is at or below the morning median. This is my least favourite of the three and I take it maybe twice a month.

Not allowed, with the reason:

Anything after 12:00. My Friday afternoon cable record over the years is poor, mainly because of US data and position squaring.

Any trade on a day with UK retail sales or GDP at 07:00. The open becomes a news trade.

Trading the US jobs report, ever.

Adding to a winning position. On other days I occasionally do. On Friday the risk of a sharp reversal before the weekend makes it not worth it.

My Friday results improved noticeably after I wrote this list down and taped it to the monitor. Fewer trades, better average. That's normally the story.

Re: Setups I allow on Friday for GBPUSD

Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2026 11:06 am
by Fairman
LondonScalper wrote: The London open range break, but only between 07:00 and 08:30
One thing to check on that first setup: Friday 07:00 London is when quite a lot of UK data comes out. Monthly GDP is often released on a Friday, and so are retail sales, both at exactly 07:00. On those Fridays the opening range and the break inside 07:00 to 08:30 are partly a reaction to the number, and they may behave quite differently from a quiet Friday. It might be worth splitting the sample into UK data Fridays and the rest. If the setup works in both groups, great. If most of the edge comes from one of them, the rule gets simpler. The Thursday close direction filter is interesting too, though on data Fridays the release can easily override it, which is another reason to look at the two groups separately.

Re: Setups I allow on Friday for GBPUSD

Posted: Mon Oct 12, 2026 8:56 pm
by Shadow Trader
A different Friday angle: the end of month Friday. When the last trading day of the month lands on a Friday, cable can behave very differently from your usual Friday pattern.

The 16:00 London fix pulls flows into the afternoon, and that's after your 12:00 cut anyway. But on those days I've seen the morning go quieter than normal too, as if people are waiting for the fix.

In my log the London break on month end Fridays had about half the follow through of a normal Friday. The attached illustration is that sample of about twenty days, normal Friday versus month-end Friday.
img_13004_r2.png
img_13004_r2.png (57.18 KiB) Viewed 18 times
Not enough samples to be sure, but enough that I halve size on them.

The other one is the Friday before a UK bank holiday. The Monday off means some people square on Friday morning, so the drift looks like a trend and then fades by 11:00.

Do you keep any special rules for those Fridays, or do they fall under the main list?