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Wedges: When the Trend Narrows Against Itself

A wedge looks like a triangle but both lines slope in the same direction. A rising wedge climbs between two upward-sloping lines that converge, and a falling wedge descends between two converging downward lines. The message is about weakening momentum. In a rising wedge, price makes higher highs, but the rises get smaller and the lines squeeze together. Buyers are pushing less each time. A break below the lower line often leads to a drop.

Falling wedges are the reverse and often precede upward breaks.

Context determines meaning. A rising wedge in an uptrend can be a reversal warning. Within a downtrend, it may be a counter-trend rally that eventually resumes lower, a continuation pattern. The same shape can mean opposite things.

As always, the pattern is only real once it breaks. Trading the squeeze in anticipation often results in being caught when the trend persists.

The target is commonly the start of the wedge, meaning price retraces to where the pattern began. The stop goes above the latest high for a short trade or beyond the opposite end of the pattern.

Wedges can be difficult to draw objectively, since slightly different touches change the shape.

Practical step: mark three wedges on past charts and check whether each broke in the direction its context suggested.

One caveat on wedges: they're easy to draw after the fact and much harder in real time. Plenty of rising wedges just keep rising. I'd only act once price actually breaks the lower line and closes outside it, not on the shape alone. It also helps to look at what's happening inside the wedge. If each push higher is smaller and the pullbacks are getting deeper, momentum really is fading. If the swings are fairly even, the wedge might just be a normal channel that happens to narrow a little. The break plus a retest of the broken line from below is the cleaner entry, though you'll miss some that just collapse straight away.

Worth noting that rising wedges in an uptrend often show up near the end of a move, when each push is weaker. That fits with momentum fading. But a lot of them resolve sideways rather than with a big drop, so keep targets modest. A common target is the start of the wedge, where the lines began converging. I'd wait for a close below the lower line rather than shorting inside the wedge, since price can keep grinding up for longer than expected. Check whether RSI is showing lower highs as price makes higher highs, which adds some confirmation of the fading momentum.