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Daily Bias, How to Decide Buy or Sell Before the Session

Entering a session without a bias is like sailing without a compass. Every wave looks like a direction. Daily bias is your written plan for what you expect price to do, and it takes about ten minutes to build.

Use this simple framework:

1. Check the higher-timeframe structure. Is the Daily and 4H making higher highs or lower lows? That sets the default direction.

2. Find where price is in the range. Is it in premium or discount relative to the recent swing?

3. Locate the nearest liquidity. Which pool has price just taken, and which is likely next?

4. Look at the previous day's candle. Did it close near its high, near its low, or after a sweep and rejection?

5. Check the news calendar. Note red-folder events and their times.

6. Write your scenario. Example: "4H bullish. Price swept yesterday's low and closed back above. I expect a move toward yesterday's high. I will look for buys at the London open after a dip into the 1H order block."

7. Write the invalidation. "If price closes below the sweep low, my bias is wrong and I stand aside."

The invalidation line is the most important. It stops you from marrying an opinion.

Bias is not a prediction you must be right about. It's a plan that tells you what to look for and what to ignore.

I'd add an eighth step: "no bias" is an allowed answer. Some mornings the 4H is mid-range, yesterday closed in the middle and liquidity is equally far on both sides. Forcing a direction then gives you a coin flip written in confident words. On those days I trade smaller or only take sweeps of the session extremes.

For the invalidation line, name the timeframe of the close. "Closes below the sweep low" on M1 happens on any wick; on M15 it means something. Writing "M15 close below" means I can't renegotiate it later.

Fairman wrote: 5. Check the news calendar. Note red-folder events and their times.

I'd move this step to the top rather than fifth. The calendar decides whether a structure-based bias is even worth writing for that day. If UK CPI is out at 7:00 London time, any sterling bias built the evening before is stale before the session opens, and on a US payrolls day the morning read is mostly a placeholder until 13:30.

On heavy days I write two short scenarios instead of one: what I expect if the number beats consensus and what I expect if it misses, each with its own invalidation. That keeps step 7 useful, because the invalidation is tied to the event rather than to a price level the release can blow through in seconds.