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NFP Friday: blackout versus specially prepared scenarios.

I have tried prepared scenarios (levels, reduced size, only fade extremes). For my temperament, a hard blackout around the release plus optional afternoon grind has been cleaner. Prepared scenarios still tempted me into the first violent minute.

Current approach
1. Flat T-15 to T+15 minimum (longer if spreads stay absurd).
2. Morning before NFP: light or flat -- I do not need to "warm up" into a landmine.
3. After: only if London afternoon structure is honest and I am not chasing the headline move.
4. Friday flat-by clock still applies -- NFP is not permission to trade into the US close.

If you run scenarios, how do you stop them becoming FOMO with a worksheet?

If you insist on scenarios, write invalidation and max loss first, and treat the first minute as non-tradable regardless. My failed experiments always started with "I will only take the pullback" and ended with a market order into chaos. Hard blackouts are kinder.

NFP: hard blackout beats clever scenarios

I tried prepared scenarios around NFP — levels, reduced size, fade extremes. For my temperament the first violent minute still pulled me in. Hard blackout around the release, then optional afternoon grind if spreads and structure normalise, has been cleaner from Frankfurt.

Rules:

• Flat into the window; pending orders cancelled
• No “just a tiny probe” exceptions
• Afternoon engagement only with session-normal risk card, not leftover adrenaline size

Prepared scenarios are fine for people who truly wait. I am honest that I was not that person during the spike. Process that matches temperament beats process that looks sophisticated.

When I do trade later on NFP Friday, I require the same cost and structure standards as a normal afternoon, not a “special day” mentality. Special-day mentality is how size creeps.

Blackout includes cancelling alerts that nag me into “just looking” during the spike.

Do you still run a reduced-size fade framework on NFP, or did you also retire it after enough first-minute lessons?