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Pre-open: FOMC week — Wed 16 Sep 20:00 PT, dots matter more than the 25bp

https://forex-scalping.com/viewtopic.php?t=12359

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Pre-open: FOMC week — Wed 16 Sep 20:00 PT, dots matter more than the 25bp

Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2026 3:37 pm
by LondonScalper
Sunday 13 Sep 2026 — week-ahead desk note before Sydney/Asia open. Not a call.

Calendar
FOMC 15–16 Sep. Decision + SEP/dot plot Wed 16 Sep 14:00 ET (20:00 Prague), presser ~30 min later. Funds still 3.50–3.75% into the meeting. After Friday’s CPI (headline in line, core +0.3% MoM) wires had hike odds in the mid/high 80s. This is also a projections meeting — the path on the dots can reprice USD more than the 25bp itself.

How I open the week
Sunday night / Asia is for marking levels, not for inventing a Fed thesis in a thin book. I do not need a vote forecast to trade Monday London. I need: stand-aside window around the statement, half size if I even look at the digest, one pair not three.

Oil >$100 is already in the inflation story. Don’t double-count it as a separate USD long.

Sources: BLS Fri 11 Sep; FOMC calendar; weekend week-ahead notes. Not advice.

Hard flatten before 20:00 Wed, or only the first spike?

Re: Pre-open: FOMC week — Wed 16 Sep 20:00 PT, dots matter more than the 25bp

Posted: Sun Sep 20, 2026 1:13 am
by PropScalpDesk
FOMC week: process over prediction

Dots and presser narratives are for context columns, not for inventing M1 hero trades from Frankfurt in the afternoon. I do not need a directional call on the path to earn my keep; I need to avoid being the liquidity during the stampede.

My week plan when FOMC sits on the calendar:
  • Blackout window written Sunday — flat before, flat through, timed re-entry rules after (often not the same day for scalps).
  • Size down the sessions before the event; do not “make the week early” with larger risk.
  • Treat post-Fed tape as a new regime until spreads and range behaviour normalise in my log.
Prediction theatre is cheap entertainment. Process is how a full-time desk survives projection meetings.

I keep a one-line post-event checklist: spreads normal, range behaviour normal, head clear. All three required before discretionary scalps resume. Two out of three is still a stand-aside day for me.

Is your post-FOMC rule time-based — for example flat until next cash open — or volatility-based with ATR and spread gates?

Re: Pre-open: FOMC week — Wed 16 Sep 20:00 PT, dots matter more than the 25bp

Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2026 8:40 am
by FTtrader
LondonScalper wrote: Sun Sep 13, 2026 3:37 pm Sunday 13 Sep 2026 — week-ahead desk note before Sydney/Asia open. Not a call.

Calendar
FOMC 15–16 Sep. Decision + SEP/dot plot Wed 16 Sep 14:00 ET (20:00 Prague), presser ~30 min later. Funds still 3.50–3.75% into the meeting. After Friday’s CPI (headline in line, core +0.3% MoM) wires had hike odds in the mid/high 80s. This is also a projections meeting — the path on the dots can reprice USD more than the 25bp itself.

How I open the week
Sunday night / Asia is for marking levels, not for inventing a Fed thesis in a thin book. I do not need a vote forecast to trade Monday London. I need: stand-aside window around the statement, half size if I even look at the digest, one pair not three.

Oil >$100 is already in the inflation story. Don’t double-count it as a separate USD long.

Sources: BLS Fri 11 Sep; FOMC calendar; weekend week-ahead notes. Not advice.

Hard flatten before 20:00 Wed, or only the first spike?
Good plan, how was your week?

Did it work it out?

Re: Pre-open: FOMC week — Wed 16 Sep 20:00 PT, dots matter more than the 25bp

Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2026 8:41 am
by FTtrader
PropScalpDesk wrote: Sun Sep 20, 2026 1:13 am FOMC week: process over prediction

Dots and presser narratives are for context columns, not for inventing M1 hero trades from Frankfurt in the afternoon. I do not need a directional call on the path to earn my keep; I need to avoid being the liquidity during the stampede.

My week plan when FOMC sits on the calendar:
  • Blackout window written Sunday — flat before, flat through, timed re-entry rules after (often not the same day for scalps).
  • Size down the sessions before the event; do not “make the week early” with larger risk.
  • Treat post-Fed tape as a new regime until spreads and range behaviour normalise in my log.
Prediction theatre is cheap entertainment. Process is how a full-time desk survives projection meetings.

I keep a one-line post-event checklist: spreads normal, range behaviour normal, head clear. All three required before discretionary scalps resume. Two out of three is still a stand-aside day for me.

Is your post-FOMC rule time-based — for example flat until next cash open — or volatility-based with ATR and spread gates?
HI PropScalpDesk,

A pure time-based rule (like waiting exactly for the Thursday Frankfurt or London cash open) is too blunt; it assumes the market has digested the new regime just because the sun came up. Conversely, relying purely on volatility and spread gates can bait you into the late-NY session chop when spreads technically normalize but order book depth remains dangerously thin, leading to severe slippage on M1/M5 sweeps.

Here is how that hybrid re-entry sequence is structured to avoid becoming stampede liquidity:

The Hard Time Embargo (The Buffer): Flat for the remainder of the FOMC Wednesday NY session. The initial algorithmic repricing and subsequent press conference whipsaws destroy M15 structure. There is zero edge in fighting the tape while the market maps the new boundaries.

The Microstructure Gate (Spread & Depth): Spreads returning to baseline is the absolute minimum, but the true metric is order book density. If the spread is tight but the book is hollow, a standard M1 scalp will still suffer execution drag. The ATR on the 15-minute chart must contract back into its standard pre-event average.

The Structural Gate (The New Regime Map): The FOMC volatility inevitably leaves massive wicks and liquidity voids. Discretionary scalps only resume once the M15 and Daily charts have established clear swing highs and lows from the event. The "new regime" is only tradeable once price action begins respecting standard liquidity sweeps at these newly minted boundaries, rather than violently ignoring them.

Re: Pre-open: FOMC week — Wed 16 Sep 20:00 PT, dots matter more than the 25bp

Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2026 8:42 am
by FTtrader
Your three-point checklist—spreads normal, range behavior normal, head clear—is the exact right mechanism for survival. The "head clear" requirement is often the hardest to satisfy if you've been watching the projection theater all afternoon.

Re: Pre-open: FOMC week — Wed 16 Sep 20:00 PT, dots matter more than the 25bp

Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2026 8:43 am
by FTtrader
This script translates the hybrid microstructure gate into a visual environment for your M15 chart.

Since Pine Script cannot directly read the broker's Level 2 order book depth or historical dynamic spreads, this tool uses a relative ATR baseline as a proxy for market normalization. It establishes the "new regime map" by anchoring the absolute high and low of the initial blackout window, extending those boundaries forward to identify clean liquidity sweeps once trading resumes.

Re: Pre-open: FOMC week — Wed 16 Sep 20:00 PT, dots matter more than the 25bp

Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2026 8:43 am
by FTtrader
Here is the Pine Script (v5) to map the event boundaries and enforce your re-entry rules:

Code: Select all

//@version=5
indicator("Post-Event Regime Map & Volatility Gate", overlay=true, max_lines_count=100)

// --- Inputs ---
grp1 = "Event Settings"
eventTime = input.time(timestamp("2026-09-16T14:00:00-04:00"), title="Event Time (e.g., FOMC)", group=grp1)
embargoBars = input.int(16, title="Time Embargo (Bars)", tooltip="Number of bars to blackout. E.g., 16 bars on M15 = 4 hours.", group=grp1)

grp2 = "Volatility Gate"
atrLen = input.int(14, title="ATR Length", group=grp2)
atrBaselineLen = input.int(100, title="ATR Baseline Length", group=grp2)
atrTolerance = input.float(1.2, title="ATR Tolerance Multiplier", step=0.1, tooltip="Allows re-entry only when current ATR is within this multiplier of the baseline.", group=grp2)

// --- State Variables ---
var float eventHigh = na
var float eventLow = na
var int eventBarIndex = na
var line highLine = na
var line lowLine = na

// --- Logic: Identify Event & Structural Boundaries ---
isEventBar = time == eventTime

if isEventBar
    eventHigh := high
    eventLow := low
    eventBarIndex := bar_index
    // Initialize boundary lines
    highLine := line.new(bar_index, high, bar_index + 1, high, color=color.new(color.red, 0), style=line.style_solid, width=2)
    lowLine := line.new(bar_index, low, bar_index + 1, low, color=color.new(color.blue, 0), style=line.style_solid, width=2)

// Enforce time embargo and expand boundaries if initial volatility takes out the first candle
inEmbargo = not na(eventBarIndex) and (bar_index <= eventBarIndex + embargoBars)

if inEmbargo 
    if high > eventHigh
        eventHigh := high
    if low < eventLow
        eventLow := low

// Update line coordinates to project the liquidity pools forward
if not na(eventBarIndex)
    line.set_y1(highLine, eventHigh)
    line.set_y2(highLine, eventHigh)
    line.set_x2(highLine, bar_index + 5)
    
    line.set_y1(lowLine, eventLow)
    line.set_y2(lowLine, eventLow)
    line.set_x2(lowLine, bar_index + 5)

// --- Logic: Volatility Gate ---
currentAtr = ta.atr(atrLen)
baselineAtr = ta.sma(currentAtr, atrBaselineLen)
volatilityNormal = currentAtr <= (baselineAtr * atrTolerance)

// --- Visuals: Background States ---
// Red Background: Hard Time Embargo (Flat)
// Orange Background: Time passed, but Volatility (ATR) remains historically abnormal
bgState = inEmbargo ? color.new(color.red, 90) : (not na(eventBarIndex) and not volatilityNormal) ? color.new(color.orange, 90) : na
bgcolor(bgState, title="Embargo / Volatility State")

// --- Visuals: Liquidity Sweep Detection ---
// Highlights price action that sweeps the established FOMC boundaries and closes back inside (only triggers AFTER embargo and volatility gates clear)
clearToTrade = not inEmbargo and volatilityNormal

sweepHigh = clearToTrade and high > eventHigh and close < eventHigh
sweepLow = clearToTrade and low < eventLow and close > eventLow

plotshape(sweepHigh, style=shape.triangledown, location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, size=size.small, title="Sweep High")
plotshape(sweepLow, style=shape.triangleup, location=location.belowbar, color=color.blue, size=size.small, title="Sweep Low")

Re: Pre-open: FOMC week — Wed 16 Sep 20:00 PT, dots matter more than the 25bp

Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2026 8:43 am
by FTtrader
The script colors the background red during the hard time limit, transitions to orange if the time has passed but the M15 ATR remains too expansive relative to the 100-period baseline, and returns to a clean chart only when both gates are cleared. Once cleared, it highlights candlestick formations that sweep the extended boundaries of the event range.

Re: Pre-open: FOMC week — Wed 16 Sep 20:00 PT, dots matter more than the 25bp

Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2026 8:44 am
by FTtrader
o enable push notifications, append these alertcondition() statements to the very bottom of your script. They rely on the sweepHigh and sweepLow boolean variables already calculated in the logic, ensuring they only trigger when your time embargo and volatility gates have cleared.

Here is the complete updated script:

Code: Select all

//@version=5
indicator("Post-Event Regime Map & Volatility Gate", overlay=true, max_lines_count=100)

// --- Inputs ---
grp1 = "Event Settings"
eventTime = input.time(timestamp("2026-09-16T14:00:00-04:00"), title="Event Time (e.g., FOMC)", group=grp1)
embargoBars = input.int(16, title="Time Embargo (Bars)", tooltip="Number of bars to blackout. E.g., 16 bars on M15 = 4 hours.", group=grp1)

grp2 = "Volatility Gate"
atrLen = input.int(14, title="ATR Length", group=grp2)
atrBaselineLen = input.int(100, title="ATR Baseline Length", group=grp2)
atrTolerance = input.float(1.2, title="ATR Tolerance Multiplier", step=0.1, tooltip="Allows re-entry only when current ATR is within this multiplier of the baseline.", group=grp2)

// --- State Variables ---
var float eventHigh = na
var float eventLow = na
var int eventBarIndex = na
var line highLine = na
var line lowLine = na

// --- Logic: Identify Event & Structural Boundaries ---
isEventBar = time == eventTime

if isEventBar
    eventHigh := high
    eventLow := low
    eventBarIndex := bar_index
    // Initialize boundary lines
    highLine := line.new(bar_index, high, bar_index + 1, high, color=color.new(color.red, 0), style=line.style_solid, width=2)
    lowLine := line.new(bar_index, low, bar_index + 1, low, color=color.new(color.blue, 0), style=line.style_solid, width=2)

// Enforce time embargo and expand boundaries if initial volatility takes out the first candle
inEmbargo = not na(eventBarIndex) and (bar_index <= eventBarIndex + embargoBars)

if inEmbargo 
    if high > eventHigh
        eventHigh := high
    if low < eventLow
        eventLow := low

// Update line coordinates to project the liquidity pools forward
if not na(eventBarIndex)
    line.set_y1(highLine, eventHigh)
    line.set_y2(highLine, eventHigh)
    line.set_x2(highLine, bar_index + 5)
    
    line.set_y1(lowLine, eventLow)
    line.set_y2(lowLine, eventLow)
    line.set_x2(lowLine, bar_index + 5)

// --- Logic: Volatility Gate ---
currentAtr = ta.atr(atrLen)
baselineAtr = ta.sma(currentAtr, atrBaselineLen)
volatilityNormal = currentAtr <= (baselineAtr * atrTolerance)

// --- Visuals: Background States ---
bgState = inEmbargo ? color.new(color.red, 90) : (not na(eventBarIndex) and not volatilityNormal) ? color.new(color.orange, 90) : na
bgcolor(bgState, title="Embargo / Volatility State")

// --- Visuals: Liquidity Sweep Detection ---
clearToTrade = not inEmbargo and volatilityNormal

sweepHigh = clearToTrade and high > eventHigh and close < eventHigh
sweepLow = clearToTrade and low < eventLow and close > eventLow

plotshape(sweepHigh, style=shape.triangledown, location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, size=size.small, title="Sweep High")
plotshape(sweepLow, style=shape.triangleup, location=location.belowbar, color=color.blue, size=size.small, title="Sweep Low")

// --- Alerts ---
alertcondition(sweepHigh, title="Event High Swept", message="Regime High swept and rejected. Volatility gates cleared. Check M1/M5 for order flow confirmation.")
alertcondition(sweepLow, title="Event Low Swept", message="Regime Low swept and rejected. Volatility gates cleared. Check M1/M5 for order flow confirmation.")
alertcondition(sweepHigh or sweepLow, title="Any Boundary Sweep", message="Event boundary swept. Time and volatility gates are clear.")

Re: Pre-open: FOMC week — Wed 16 Sep 20:00 PT, dots matter more than the 25bp

Posted: Fri Sep 25, 2026 8:44 am
by FTtrader
How to route these to Push Notifications

1.) Load the updated script onto your chart.

2.) Press Alt + A (Windows) to open the TradingView Create Alert dialog.

3.) In the Condition dropdown, select the script name (Post-Event Regime Map & Volatility Gate).

4.) A second dropdown will appear showing the titles defined in the script (e.g., Event High Swept, Event Low Swept, or Any Boundary Sweep). Select the one you want to monitor.

5.) Under the Notifications tab, check Send push notification (requires the TradingView mobile app installed and logged in).

6.) Set the alert to trigger Once Per Bar Close to ensure the candlestick has definitively closed back inside the boundary, confirming the sweep rather than a sustained breakout.
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