That split — confidence versus certainty — is the one that keeps showing up in the blotter.Fairman wrote:Confidence... isn't a belief that a specific outcome is guaranteed — it's trust in the soundness of your process...
Certainty-hunting is usually analysis paralysis in a better suit: checklist already green, yet another TF “just to be sure,” and the London window is gone. Perfectionism does the same damage at higher frequency; scalping gives it too many doors to walk through. Sunk cost inside an open ticket is the cousin: widening a stop because you have “already spent” the analysis, or holding to prove a forum disagreement right. The market does not grade arguments.
Desk rule that survived here: if criteria are met, decide inside a short clock. If invalidation prints, flatten — time invested and ego invested do not buy another pip of edge. Confidence is repeating a boring plan; certainty is a story we tell ourselves to delay the click.
