Re: Seconds after BOJ headlines on USDJPY: my stand-aside timer
Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2026 4:53 pm
The pullback-depth test is the useful part for me. In real time I often can't tell a spike from a leg, but writing it as a ratio helps: if the first retrace gives back more than about two thirds of the burst, I don't engage at all, and if it's under a third and holding, it becomes a candidate for reduced size.
I'm less convinced by doubling the timer at month-end as a flat rule. Intervention risk rises with the level and the speed of the move, and neither is tied to the calendar. What I do instead is watch where USDJPY sits relative to the level where the MoF last stepped in or started talking. Near it, any headline gets the long timer whatever the date.
JGB yields are a good cross-check, though on my screens they confirm after the fact more than they help me click. The Nikkei future is quicker and easier to see.
The phrase ladder I keep on a card too. "Not ruling out any options" has meant stand aside for the rest of my session every time I've seen it.
I'm less convinced by doubling the timer at month-end as a flat rule. Intervention risk rises with the level and the speed of the move, and neither is tied to the calendar. What I do instead is watch where USDJPY sits relative to the level where the MoF last stepped in or started talking. Near it, any headline gets the long timer whatever the date.
JGB yields are a good cross-check, though on my screens they confirm after the fact more than they help me click. The Nikkei future is quicker and easier to see.
The phrase ladder I keep on a card too. "Not ruling out any options" has meant stand aside for the rest of my session every time I've seen it.