When the Asian range is unusually wide going into London

[Shadow Trader]

The claim is everywhere: price will come back and tag the Asian high or low, so mark them on the chart and wait. It sounds tidy, and it is half right in a way that causes trouble.

What tends to be true is that those levels get visited often, because they sit at the edge of a range that formed when the market was quiet, and anything that breaks out of a quiet range will probably touch one side. That is a statement about geometry as much as about magnets. A level at the edge of the recent range is close to price, so price gets there.

What is not established is that the visit means anything. The touch can be the start of a trend day, the end of a London fakeout, or noise on a day when nothing happened. The magnet idea gets credit for the second case and is quietly forgotten in the first.

A cleaner way to look at it is to ask what price does after the visit, not whether the visit happens. Does it sweep the level and reverse within a few candles, or accept above or below it with a retest that holds? Those are different situations with different directions of trade.

Range width also changes the picture. A 15-pip Asian range is a weak reference, since London's first hour alone will take it out in either direction. A wide Asian range after a news event carries more weight.

Has anyone measured what happens after the first touch of the Asian high or low, and does the result depend on the width of the range?