Re: AUDUSD tape read: initiative shift at overlap open
Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2026 11:12 pm
Time beyond the boundary is the most reliable of your four for me. A break that holds above the Asia high for three or four M5 closes, with the pullbacks staying above the level, has changed hands. A spike through and back hasn't, whatever the candle looked like.
On the EA, closing in the top 25% of the range is a reasonable test, but three consecutive candles is demanding on AUDUSD at the overlap. Genuine initiative often prints one indecisive bar between two strong ones. I'd look for two of the last three meeting the threshold, with none closing back below the break level.
Spread compression I'd treat carefully. On my feed the AUDUSD spread tightens at the overlap whether or not anything is happening, because the New York providers come in. It tells you costs are fine, which is worth knowing, but not who's in control.
On the EA, closing in the top 25% of the range is a reasonable test, but three consecutive candles is demanding on AUDUSD at the overlap. Genuine initiative often prints one indecisive bar between two strong ones. I'd look for two of the last three meeting the threshold, with none closing back below the break level.
Spread compression I'd treat carefully. On my feed the AUDUSD spread tightens at the overlap whether or not anything is happening, because the New York providers come in. It tells you costs are fine, which is worth knowing, but not who's in control.