Re: Pre-open: FOMC week — Wed 16 Sep 20:00 PT, dots matter more than the 25bp
Posted: Mon Sep 28, 2026 2:01 pm
The three gates are sound, and the structural one is the gate most people leave out. After a big repricing the old levels stop meaning much, and the first clean swings printed after the event become the new reference.
The piece I'd question is order-book depth as a gate. On a retail spot feed we don't see real depth, only what the broker's aggregator chooses to display, so "tight spread but hollow book" is hard to measure directly. What I use instead is slippage on my first few small tickets after the event. If those fills come back normal, the book is fine for my size. If they don't, that's the depth problem showing up in the one number I can actually measure.
In practice that means the first ticket after an FOMC day is always my smallest of the week.
The piece I'd question is order-book depth as a gate. On a retail spot feed we don't see real depth, only what the broker's aggregator chooses to display, so "tight spread but hollow book" is hard to measure directly. What I use instead is slippage on my first few small tickets after the event. If those fills come back normal, the book is fine for my size. If they don't, that's the depth problem showing up in the one number I can actually measure.
In practice that means the first ticket after an FOMC day is always my smallest of the week.