Being flat on a big trend day

[Fairman]

Being flat on a big trend day

Some days a pair trends hard from the open to the close, and you're not in it. Maybe your setups never triggered, maybe you were fading and got stopped, maybe you just weren't trading that day. Afterwards, the chart looks obvious, and it's easy to feel you missed something huge.

The urge after a day like that is to change something. Add a trend following setup. Loosen your rules so you'd have been in. Trade the next day more aggressively to make up for it.

That's usually a mistake. Trend days are a minority of days. A strategy built to catch them will suffer on the many days that aren't trending. Your strategy probably does well on the normal days it was designed for.

What's worth doing is checking whether there was a setup in your rules that you missed. If there was, that's an execution issue to look at. If there wasn't, then your strategy simply doesn't trade that kind of day, and that's fine.

It also helps to remember that the clean trend only looks clean in hindsight. During the day, it had pullbacks that looked like reversals, and plenty of traders were faded out of it.

Missing a trend day is part of having a defined strategy.

[Fairman]

If trend days keep happening and you keep missing them, it might be worth having a simple separate setup for them, with clear rules for recognising a trend day early, like price staying above the first hour high with expanding range. But that should be tested on its own and added deliberately, not added in frustration the day after a big move. Most of the time, one missed trend day isn't enough evidence to change anything at all. If the same type of day keeps being missed over a couple of months, then it might be time to look at a separate setup, tested properly first.

[Fairman]

Fading strategies are the ones that get hurt most on trend days, so if you fade, having a rule to stop after a couple of losses in the same direction helps. Two stopped fades against the same strong move is often a sign it's a trend day. Standing aside then limits the damage and avoids the third and fourth fade that tend to happen when someone is convinced the move must turn. That rule doesn't catch the trend, but it keeps you from fighting it. Two stops in the same direction is a decent signal to stand aside for the rest of the session.

[FXS Prop Desk]

Being flat on a trend day is a normal part of trading. Every strategy misses some moves, and trying to catch all of them usually leads to chasing.

One question worth asking: did your rules give a valid entry that you skipped? If yes, there may be something to learn about execution. If not, the strategy simply does not trade that type of day, and that is fine.