EURGBP and the Asia range fade: does it still work after costs?

[LondonScalper]

Asia range fade into London on EURGBP is an old idea. Costs decide whether it still earns rent.

I fade a clear Asia extreme only when London shows rejection rather than acceptance, and I keep the target inside the Asia range — not a fantasy mean-reversion to last week’s midpoint. Cross spreads mean the pattern must be clean; pretty is not enough.

Rule: no fade if Asia range is tiny (nothing meaningful to mean-revert) and no fade if London opens with strong directional displacement through the extreme. Pending orders parked at Asia highs without confirmation have been worse for me than waiting for the rejection close.

If EURUSD is one-way and GBP is just dragged, EURGBP fades can be residual noise. I check the parents before fading the child.

I would rather miss a tidy fade than collect a cost-eaten scratch that looks clever in hindsight.

• Still trading Asia range fades on EURGBP?
• London confirmation required, or pending orders at the extreme?

After-cost honesty appreciated.

[PropScalpDesk]

EURGBP Asia fade only after London rejection

Old pattern, costs decide survival. I will fade a clear Asia extreme on EURGBP only when London shows rejection rather than acceptance, and the target stays inside the Asia range — not a romantic trip to last week’s midpoint.

Cross spreads and occasional sticky liquidity mean my minimum edge in points is higher than on EURUSD. If the sheet says the fade no longer clears costs at my size, the setup becomes a journal observation, not a ticket.

Rule: no fade if UK data is inside the next half hour, and no chase if I missed the rejection candle. Late entries on crosses are how small edges become chores.

If London accepts through the Asia extreme with range expansion, I cancel the fade idea entirely. Acceptance is the opposite of the setup, and arguing with it has a clear historical PnL on my sheet.

Has EURGBP Asia fade still cleared your cost hurdle over the last month of logs, or have you retired it pending better spreads?

[Shadow Trader]

Still trading it, but only on days when the Asia range is wide enough to pay for itself. My cutoff is 14 pips, because with the target at the midpoint that leaves about 7 pips to work with, and anything less gets eaten.

Cost in pips is a little kinder on EURGBP than people assume. The pip is worth pounds rather than dollars, so paying 7 dollars per lot for the round trip works out near 0.55 pip with GBPUSD near 1.3, against 0.7 on EURUSD.

The raw spread at 08:00 is where it gives that back. On my feed it sits near 1.0 for the first few minutes, so I do not enter before 08:05 even if the rejection candle is perfect.

Over the last month I logged 9 fades that met both your rules and PropScalpDesk's UK data rule. Five reached the midpoint, two scratched and two were stopped. That cleared costs, but only just.

The parents check is the part I would like to formalise. Do you use a number for when EURUSD counts as one way, or is it a judgement call at the open?